The most important report you missed last week
Newsletter #40
Photo by Wolfgang Hasselmann on Unsplash
Hello and welcome to The Zeroist, a Substack about the big conversations that are happening on the road to net zero emissions. Thanks for reading.
In this issue: A report you definitely missed last week, and why telling the story of water and climate is so important, plus news from the latest floods in the Himalayas.
What you missed last week, and why it matters
Water disasters are everywhere, and the images of floating cars, collapsing bridges and submerged subway stations have become so commonplace that it’s hard to recall which country the last one happened in.
But in case you’re thinking “I don’t live in a flood risk zone”, think again. Last week the World Metereological Organization released its second annual report on global water resources, warning that the global water cycle is spinning out of balance.
That means a lot of things are going awry, so whatever you think you know about rainfall patterns in your area is probably no longer relevant. What we do know is that rainfall is now increasingly erratic, extreme weather events are getting more frequent, and more intense (and the government agencies in charge of early warnings are really, just, not on it), and that one-off events are now the norm.
What is an out-of-balance water cycle
A water cycle spinning out of balance sounds alarming. But it is also quite abstract. When was the last time you saw a major climate report come out with a headline that focuses on the carbon cycle?
People assume that climate change is hard to understand, but they may not think the same thing about water, and yet it is also hard to understand, and hard to communicate. In fact, both the water cycle and the carbon cycle are Earth processes that play important roles regulating the planet’s climate and sustaining life. And the climate crisis plays into the water crisis in multiple ways which we get to see playing out in the form of water-related disasters that are proliferating and intensifying the world over.
In an editorial in June on How climate change alters the water cycle the journal Nature Water, wrote:
We might all hope for a definitive answer to the question of whether there will be more or less water for us in the future, but the reality is too complicated to be explained by a simple answer.
This is quite a new challenge for people who work on communicating environmental change and sustainability. The job of explaining the water crisis in a way that accurately reflects the interactions with climate change, and then the policy change that should accompany this new understanding, is a work in progress.
Climate change is not just about getting drier or getting wetter when it comes to water availability. We should work towards a more comprehensive process understanding of the water cycle that accounts for human actions. (Nature Water editorial)
Last month I wrote about the planetary boundaries, and how the search for effective storytelling metaphors and tropes has evolved over the years.
Right now there is a grand challenge to find, quickly, an effective way to communicate the interplay between water and climate so as to overhaul the business as usual approach which assigns a third order priority to water - coming after climate and nature, and focused largely on questions like local impacts and disaster risk.
Although conservative in its policy recommendations (more data is needed for more early warning systems), the WMO report does a good job sounding this alarm on the climate-water question.
WMO Secretary-General Prof Petteri Taalas:
Glaciers and ice cover are retreating before our eyes. Rising temperatures have accelerated – and also disrupted – the water cycle. A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture. We are seeing much heavier precipitation episodes and flooding. And at the opposite extreme, more evaporation, dry soils, and more intense droughts.
The report provides an overview of countries worst-hit by water-related disasters in 2022, and points out that none of them had timely and accurate hydrological data available to support evidence-based decision-making and early action.
Glacial Lake Outburst Flooding
Earlier this month, a glacial lake outburst caused flash floods in the Himalayan region of Sikkim. This sudden overflow in the South Lhnonak glacial lake led to a flash flood in the Teesta River, which then destroyed a dam in Chungthang, 60 kms downstream, leaving at least 75 dead, more than a hundred missing and washing away hundreds of houses, roads and bridges.
What is a glacial lake outburst? Speaking to Carbon Brief, scientist Jakob Steiner gave this description of the Sikkim event:
Part of the slope next to the glacier fell and crashed into the lake like the wall of a house, creating a tsunami wave that eventually managed to overtop and erode the dam.
He added that permafrost has been thawing in the region and destabilising the barriers that once held the two kilometre-wide lake in place.
According to a paper published in February, some 15 million people globally are exposed to impacts from potential glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), and more than half of the most exposed population live in 4 countries: India, Pakistan, Peru, and China.
Scientist Dr Ashim Sattar, who modelled the Sikkim glacial lake outburst flood in a 2021 paper, gave Carbon Brief, gave a succint (and heartbreaking) summary of the paradox facing those on the frontlines of climate impacts today:
We don’t have the money or the capacity to keep putting in these early warning systems, while we keep putting more CO2 in the atmosphere.
According to a report in June from the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development, Himalayan glaciers could lose 80% of their volume by the end of this century.
And if that wasn’t enough, there’s Collapsing Dams
The chain of destruction seen in Sikkim highights yet another water-related problem that is set to ramp up in coming years. Jeff Opperman, WWF freshwater scientist, wrote an explainer thread that unpacks the threat of collapsing dams. The recent floods in Libya that led to the deaths of more than 10,000 people resulted from the collapse of two dams which were nearly 50 years old and not well maintained. However, the dam that collapsed in India was only ten years old.
Just a reminder that this newsletter is a free labour of love, and if you have enjoyed this issue, feel you learned something, and would like to say thanks, you can buy me a coffee.